Wine economy in Byzantine Shivta (Negev, Israel): Exploring the role of runoff agriculture and droughts through Agent-Based Modeling

Viticulture was a vital agricultural and economic activity during the Byzantine period, also in marginal regions like the Negev Desert. Innovative dryland farming techniques, such as runoff harvesting systems, terraces, and pigeon towers, enabled intensive grape cultivation and a thriving wine export economy. This study focuses on the resilience and adaptability of viticulture in the hinterland of Shivta, analyzing how climatic challenges like aridification and drought tested Byzantine water management strategies. The AGENTS model, developed in NetLogo, integrates various components to simulate viticulture dynamics in the Zetan watershed, calculating water availability, crop yields, and labor costs. The results show that higher runoff ratios improve yield efficiency, while excessive runoff ratios diminish productivity. Prolonged droughts significantly decrease wine production and extend recovery times beyond a decade. Wetter climatic scenarios slightly enhance yield efficiency but do not overcome structural limitations, highlighting the fragile nature of viticulture in the Negev desert. Overall, this study highlights the importance of effective water management in sustaining agriculture and the constraints that limited resilience in Shivta’s agricultural system. The modeling approach offers insights applicable to other regions and historical contexts facing environmental challenges.