What factors increase the probability of Chinese interventions in intrastate wars?

ABSTRACT: This study examines the question: What are the factors that increase the probability of Chinese interference in intrastate wars? Chinese behaviour concerning intrastate wars was examined using multivariate logistic regressions. The analyses included the general behaviour of China regarding interference in intrastate wars, Chinese support of violent non-governmental organizations and of state governments. Both were also studied separately for the Cold War and the post-Cold War eras. Among the covariates that were examined, several emerged as possible explanations for China's behaviour: geographic contiguity, adversary regime type, and China's relative military capabilities. Furthermore, differences were found between Chinese support of violent non-governmental organizations and of governments in intrastate wars. Different results were also obtained for Cold War and post-Cold War eras.