The Three Tensions of Investigating Intelligence Failures

This paper offers a framework for analyzing governmental inquiries into intelligence failures. The paper argues that all investigations face three inherent tensions over their timing, purpose, and process. The benefits and disadvantages of conducting inquiries immediately after the intelligence failure or years later, engaging in investigations designed to ascribe blame or find solutions to endemic intelligence problems, and conducting adversarial, legal-style investigations or collaborative inquiries, are all discussed. In many cases, but not always, the two first tensions are exacerbated by the politicization of the inquiry. Using examples from governmental inquiries around the world, the paper investigates each tension and offers some strategies for mitigating them.