The Road to Desert Storm

Analysis of escalation of commitment is used to highlight the differences between two paradigms in the study of decision making. The rational paradigm proposes that escalation is a dysfunctional response to failure (Staw and Ross 1987). A single-option paradigm, developed in this paper, proposes that it is a necessary response to uncertainty which may, but not necessarily, result in failure. Analysis of the decision-making process of President Bush prior to Operation Desert Storm highlights the differences between the two paradigms and demonstrates how they provide different interpretations and evaluations of a given decision process.