The missing link: Patterns in leadership changes and mediation in civil wars

The nature of wars and warfare has changed dramatically since the end of the Cold Wars. The battles and proxy battles-fought between armed troops-that characterized the Cold Wars have given way to bloody and intercommunal conflicts in diverse places such as Angola, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Sudan, Iraq, Russia, Turkey, Rwanda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Bosnia. The post-Cold Wars period has been characterized by an outbreak of nationalism and the accentuation of national and religious identity, and since the end of the Cold Wars, the types of actors involved in the major hot spots of violent conflict in the world have changed; the issues in dispute have shifted; the methods and technologies of warfare have evolved. Clearly, these trends have important implications for the ways actors in the international system behave in managing and, no less importantly, in resolving their disputes. We present some findings regarding the leadership change-mediation/civil wars settlement relationship based on systematic analysis of leader shifts in civil wars. Finally, we briefly discuss the impact of leader changes on mediation in civil wars as it has manifested in conflicts in Asia, specifically the Philippines and Myanmar.