The Import of Strategic and Nonstrategic Commodities During War: A Systematic Case Study Focusing on Israel from 1980 till 2014

Under what circumstances do belligerents succeed in increasing their imports during wartime? This research seeks to answer that question by addressing contradictory findings in the literature on the relationship between trade and war. We propose that the answer depends on two factors that have not been examined together: the value of the imports for the battlefield and the intensity of the war. These two factors influence the willingness of belligerents to reprioritize their import preferences based on strategic considerations. However, they also influence exporters’ willingness to signal their dissatisfaction, as well as the extent of the damage to the belligerent’s economy. To test this contention, we classified 96 commodities as strategic or nonstrategic using the HS02 classification, and then employed gravity models to analyze dyadic import flows from 168 countries to Israel between 1980 and 2014. The findings reveal that the relationship between war and imports varies with the intensity of the conflict. Strategic commodities are associated with a stronger positive relationship between war and imports when the intensity of the conflict does not exceed 1,000 casualties. In contrast, when casualties surpass 1,000, war is associated with a sharper decline in strategic imports, suggestive of economic damage and exporters’ dissatisfaction with war.