Temporal epidemiological model of community transmission of Covid-19 with changing dynamics

Alex Abbey, Yanir Marmour, Yuval Shahar, Osnat Mokryn

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractpeer-review

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has created a global crisis. In response, governments and local authorities seek to employ Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of the virus. A form of social distancing solution is the creation of spatial or temporal distancing pods. Here, we quantify the different effects of the temporal vs. the spatial division on the spread of the infection in the community, using both temporal random networks, and real-life contact networks. We find that reducing temporal density reduces contagion more robustly than spatial pods. Lowering meeting rates enables removal of symptomatic infected individuals, slows contagion and reduces the burden on the healthcare system and other scarce resources. Further, big changes in initial parameters (number and location of patient zero) do not translate to big changes in the result when temporal pods are used, while the spatial density effect depends heavily on the number and location of patient zero.
Original languageEnglish
StatePublished - 2021
EventNetworks 2021, A Joint Sunbelt and NetSci Conference -
Duration: 1 Dec 2021 → …

Conference

ConferenceNetworks 2021, A Joint Sunbelt and NetSci Conference
Period1/12/21 → …

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