Systematic mistakes are likely in bounded optimal decision-making systems

Adi Livnat; Nicholas Pippenger

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.09.044

Systematic mistakes are likely in bounded optimal decision-making systems

Adi Livnat, Nicholas Pippenger

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Systematic mistakes can be distinguished from other types of mistakes in that they are repeatable and predictable within a given organism, and are not due to uncertainty or lack of information. Here we provide a mathematical definition for the concept of systematic mistakes, which captures the way this concept has been used in the behavioral sciences. We also provide an analytical model of information processing networks that are made of large numbers of components, in analogy to the brain being made of a large number of neurons. We show that, for almost all behavioral tasks, and for a wide range of limitations on the computational complexity of the decision-making network, the best possible decision-makers will make systematic mistakes. This result, together with available empirical evidence, suggests that violations of rationality in humans and animals are consistent with natural selection, as the latter operates under constraints.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	410-423
Number of pages	14
Journal	Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume	250
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.09.044
State	Published - 7 Feb 2008
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Simon Levin, Eric Maskin, Steve Pacala, Steve Pratt and Kim Weaver for invaluable comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. We thank Marissa Baskett, Jonathan Dushoff, Jim Gould, Henry Horn, Holger Krapp, John McNamara, Dan Rubenstein and Eldar Shafir for conversations during the course of the work. A.L. was supported by the Burroughs-Wellcome Fund, the Pew Charitable Trust, and the Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science. N.P. was supported by National Science Foundation Grant CCF-0430656.

Keywords

Behavioral ecology
Bounded rationality
Computational complexity
Decision-making
Heuristics and biases
Rules of thumb

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Statistics and Probability
Modeling and Simulation
General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Immunology and Microbiology
General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Applied Mathematics

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10.1016/j.jtbi.2007.09.044

Cite this

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title = "Systematic mistakes are likely in bounded optimal decision-making systems",

abstract = "Systematic mistakes can be distinguished from other types of mistakes in that they are repeatable and predictable within a given organism, and are not due to uncertainty or lack of information. Here we provide a mathematical definition for the concept of systematic mistakes, which captures the way this concept has been used in the behavioral sciences. We also provide an analytical model of information processing networks that are made of large numbers of components, in analogy to the brain being made of a large number of neurons. We show that, for almost all behavioral tasks, and for a wide range of limitations on the computational complexity of the decision-making network, the best possible decision-makers will make systematic mistakes. This result, together with available empirical evidence, suggests that violations of rationality in humans and animals are consistent with natural selection, as the latter operates under constraints.",

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author = "Adi Livnat and Nicholas Pippenger",

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Systematic mistakes are likely in bounded optimal decision-making systems

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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