Strategic intelligence: a concentrated and diffused intelligence model

Both the discipline of strategic intelligence at the governmental level and the competitive intelligence discipline constitute accepted methods of supporting decision in order to avert mistakes and prevent strategic surprise. So far, research has focused on national intelligence and intelligence in business separately however, it is possible to use experience accumulated in the business field to improve intelligence practice in national security and vice versa. The central innovation of this article is that mutual learning can be utilized in the context of a model that makes a distinction between a ‘concentrated surprise’ and a ‘diffused surprise’ to provide a breakthrough in the intelligence field for better prediction of the development of surprises.