Statistical modeling to promote students’ aggregate reasoning with sample and sampling

While aggregate reasoning is a core aspect of statistical reasoning, its development is a key challenge in statistics education. In this study we examine how students’ aggregate reasoning with samples and sampling (ARWSS) can emerge in the context of statistical modeling activities of real phenomena. We present a case study on the emergent ARWSS of two pairs of sixth graders (age 11–12) involved in statistical data analysis and informal inference utilizing TinkerPlots. The students’ growing understandings of various statistical concepts is described and five perceptions the students expressed are identified. We discuss the contribution of modeling to these progressions followed by conclusions and limitations of these results. While idiosyncratic, the insights contribute to the understanding of students’ aggregate reasoning with data and models, with regards to samples and sampling.