Spatio-Temporal influence of Non-Pharmaceutical interventions policies on pandemic dynamics and the economy: the case of COVID-19

Teddy Lazebnik, Labib Shami, Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We have developed an extended mathematical graph-based spatial-temporal SIR model, allowing a multidimensional analysis of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the pandemic spread, while assessing the economic losses caused by it. By incorporating into the model dynamics that are a consequence of the interrelationship between the pandemic and the economic crisis, such as job separation not as a result of workers’ morbidity, analysis were enriched. Controlling the spread of the pandemic and preventing outbreaks have been investigated using two NPIs: the duration of working and school days and lockdown to varying degrees among the adult and children populations. Based on the proposed model and data from the Israeli economy, allowing 7.5 working hours alongside 4.5 school hours would maximise output and prevent an outbreak, while minimising the death toll (0.48% of the population). Alternatively, an 89% lockdown among children and a 63% lockdown among adults will minimise the death toll (0.21%) while maximising output and preventing outbreaks.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1833-1861
Number of pages29
JournalEconomic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja
Volume35
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 2022
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Keywords

  • crisis management
  • government policy
  • mathematical and simulation modelling
  • public health
  • State space models

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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