Social indicators of marital instability, U.S.A., 1920-1969

A social indicators model which included demographic variables (birth rate and aged child ratio), economic variable (unemployment) and marriage rates (control variable) was utilized in explaining changes in divorce rates over time. Analysis of time series data for two distinctive periods in the U.S.A. (1920-1940 and 1946-1969) revealed the following significant results: (1) Demographic changes in the age structure of the population while controlling for marriage rates explains significantly larger amounts of the variance in marital instability than economic changes alone (unemployment). (2) In the post-World War II era unemployment was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of marital instability when control for demographic changes were established. (3) In the post-World War II era marriage rates appear to be a significant predictor of divorce rates when control for demographic changes were maintained. (4) In the post-World War II era marriage rates were found to be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than marital instability (divorce rate).