Potential earthquake risks are defined here in terms of the annual probability of exceeding a peak ground acceleration level at the free surface of a site. Potential earthquake risks in Israel were estimated by Shapira (1981, 1982), by considering the apparent seismicity of the region during the last 145 years. In this paper, a simulation process has been applied in order to examine the reliability of previous estimations and to provide another general tool for earthquake risk evaluation. A relatively simple Monte-Carlo procedure was developed and has been used for estimating, as an example, the potential earthquake risk in Jerusalem (Israel). The estimated probabilities obtained by the simulation procedure are, for all practical purposes, similar to the apparent probabilities previously determined by the author. However, a re-evaluation of the potential earthquake risks in Israel will be required when an attenuation equation, based on local and regional acceleration measurements, has been developed.
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
Seismological &vision, Institute for Petroleum Research and Geophysics, P.O. Box I71 7, Holon 58117 (Israel) *, and Seismology Section, Licensing Division, Israel Atomic Energy Commission, P.O. Box 7061, Tel Aviv 61070 (Israel)
This work was carried out at the Licensing Division of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC), in collaboration with the Seismology Division of the Institute for Petroleum Research and Geophysics (IPRG). The methods and the results presented do not necessarily present the opinion of the IAEC. The helpful discussions and critical reading of the manuscript by Dr. Dan LitaI and Professor H.L. Striem, from the IAEC, Dr. Y. Rotstein of the IPRG and Professor M. Bath of Uppsala University (Sweden) are gratefully acknowledged.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth-Surface Processes