On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Mattia Fumagalli; Gal Engelberg; Tiago Prince Sales; Ítalo Oliveira; Dan Klein; Pnina Soffer; Riccardo Baratella; Giancarlo Guizzardi

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Mattia Fumagalli, Gal Engelberg, Tiago Prince Sales, Ítalo Oliveira, Dan Klein, Pnina Soffer, Riccardo Baratella, Giancarlo Guizzardi

Department of Information Systems

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Research Challenges in Information Science
Subtitle of host publication	Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings
Editors	Selmin Nurcan, Andreas L. Opdahl, Haralambos Mouratidis, Aggeliki Tsohou
Publisher	Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages	69-86
Number of pages	18
ISBN (Print)	9783031330797
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5
State	Published - 2023
Event	17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Sciences, RCIS 2023 - Corfu, Greece Duration: 23 May 2023 → 26 May 2023

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing
Volume	476 LNBIP
ISSN (Print)	1865-1348
ISSN (Electronic)	1865-1356

Conference

Conference	17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Sciences, RCIS 2023
Country/Territory	Greece
City	Corfu
Period	23/05/23 → 26/05/23

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Keywords

Risk propagation
ontological analysis
risk modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Management Information Systems
Control and Systems Engineering
Business and International Management
Information Systems
Modeling and Simulation
Information Systems and Management

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

Cite this

Fumagalli, M., Engelberg, G., Sales, T. P., Oliveira, Í., Klein, D., Soffer, P., Baratella, R., & Guizzardi, G. (2023). On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. In S. Nurcan, A. L. Opdahl, H. Mouratidis, & A. Tsohou (Eds.), Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings (pp. 69-86). (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 476 LNBIP). Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

Fumagalli, Mattia ; Engelberg, Gal ; Sales, Tiago Prince et al. / On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings. editor / Selmin Nurcan ; Andreas L. Opdahl ; Haralambos Mouratidis ; Aggeliki Tsohou. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. pp. 69-86 (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing).

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abstract = "Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.",

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Fumagalli, M, Engelberg, G, Sales, TP, Oliveira, Í, Klein, D, Soffer, P, Baratella, R & Guizzardi, G 2023, On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. in S Nurcan, AL Opdahl, H Mouratidis & A Tsohou (eds), Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol. 476 LNBIP, Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, pp. 69-86, 17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Sciences, RCIS 2023, Corfu, Greece, 23/05/23. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5

On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. / Fumagalli, Mattia; Engelberg, Gal; Sales, Tiago Prince et al.
Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings. ed. / Selmin Nurcan; Andreas L. Opdahl; Haralambos Mouratidis; Aggeliki Tsohou. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023. p. 69-86 (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing; Vol. 476 LNBIP).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

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Fumagalli M, Engelberg G, Sales TP, Oliveira Í, Klein D, Soffer P et al. On the Semantics of Risk Propagation. In Nurcan S, Opdahl AL, Mouratidis H, Tsohou A, editors, Research Challenges in Information Science: Information Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings. Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH. 2023. p. 69-86. (Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-33080-3_5