On the Semantics of Risk Propagation

Mattia Fumagalli, Gal Engelberg, Tiago Prince Sales, Ítalo Oliveira, Dan Klein, Pnina Soffer, Riccardo Baratella, Giancarlo Guizzardi

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review


Risk propagation encompasses a plethora of techniques for analyzing how risk “spreads” in a given system. Albeit commonly used in technical literature, the very notion of risk propagation turns out to be a conceptually imprecise and overloaded one. This might also explain the multitude of modeling solutions that have been proposed in the literature. Having a clear understanding of what exactly risk is, how it be quantified, and in what sense it can be propagated is fundamental for devising high-quality risk assessment and decision-making solutions. In this paper, we exploit a previous well-established work about the nature of risk and related notions with the goal of providing a proper interpretation of the different notions of risk propagation, as well as revealing and harmonizing the alternative semantics for the links used in common risk propagation graphs. Finally, we discuss how these results can be leveraged in practice to model risk propagation scenarios.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationResearch Challenges in Information Science
Subtitle of host publicationInformation Science and the Connected World - 17th International Conference, RCIS 2023, Proceedings
EditorsSelmin Nurcan, Andreas L. Opdahl, Haralambos Mouratidis, Aggeliki Tsohou
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Number of pages18
ISBN (Print)9783031330797
StatePublished - 2023
Event17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Sciences, RCIS 2023 - Corfu, Greece
Duration: 23 May 202326 May 2023

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Business Information Processing
Volume476 LNBIP
ISSN (Print)1865-1348
ISSN (Electronic)1865-1356


Conference17th International Conference on Research Challenges in Information Sciences, RCIS 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.


  • Risk propagation
  • ontological analysis
  • risk modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Information Systems
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Business and International Management
  • Information Systems
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Information Systems and Management


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