On the Inadmissibility of the Aggregated Probabilities Principle

This article is a response to the argument that, under certain conditions, courts should be permitted to convict a defendant even though the prosecution failed to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the defendant committed any specific offence of which he was accused. This new decision principle has been described as the Aggregated Probabilities Principle (APP). However, a correct mathematical approach to probabilistic interdependence among offences would render APP impractical. It is also doubtful whether adopting APP would actually lead to a reduction of enforcement costs or to minimising adjudication errors, and it would require that we choose between a reduction in equality or in deterrence.