On mistaking a dominant party in a dealigning system

The 2003 elections were much more than simply another gyration of the Israeli political wheel of fortune. They offer clear evidence of a further weakening of the left in the ongoing shift to the right and to the Likud, as the analysis of the election results and the surveys conducted between 1969 and 2003 indicates. Rules of the game change, new groups of voters emerge, and international and economic realities are in constant flux. Realignment and dealignment are two concepts that are useful in understanding political change and interpreting electoral dynamics. The chapter argues that the Israeli party system has undergone both realignment and dealignment. Dealignment is a major characteristic of most advanced industrial democracies and of Israel as well. The Likud had the wherewithal to achieve the status of dominant party. It was identified with the era, its leaders set the public agenda, and even its detractors recognized its uncontested position of rule.