Abstract
A large literature examines how citizens in violent conflicts react to the conflict's events, particularly violent escalations. Nevertheless, the temporal nature of these attitudinal changes remains under-studied. We suggest that popular reactions to greater violence are typically immediate but brief, indicating short-term emotional responses to physical threats. Over the longer term, however, public opinion is more commonly shaped by non-violent events signaling the adversary's perceived intentions, reflecting slower but deeper belief-updating processes. We support this argument using dynamic analyses of comprehensive monthly data from Israel spanning two full decades (2001-20). Rather than violence levels, we find that long-term changes in Jewish attitudes on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict follow non-violent events implying Palestinian preferences, particularly failed negotiations and out-group leadership changes. Our findings underscore the importance of public opinion's temporal dynamics and show that non-violent events, which are often overlooked in the literature, play a prominent role in shaping long-term attitudes in conflictual contexts.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 460-478 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | British Journal of Political Science |
Volume | 53 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 30 Apr 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:Copyright © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press.
Keywords
- Israeli-Palestinian conflict
- conflict
- conflict resolution
- political behavior
- public opinion
- time-series analysis
- violence
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Political Science and International Relations