Investigating incentives to exaggerate the risks of water wars

Predictions and warnings of inevitable and imminent wars over scarce water are increasingly common. These statements continue to be made despite relatively weak empirical evidence to support them. This study presents the sets of incentives to stress and even exaggerate the probability of war over water facing five sets of actors: policy-makers, academics, the media, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the private sector. The study argues that this confluence of such an array of incentives has likely contributed to an overemphasis of the likelihood of war over water in public discourse