Increasing seismicity as an earthquake precursor in Israel

The possibility that changes in the seismicity in and around Israel are precursors is examined. The data available for the period 1982‐1987 show that the probability of the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake (M_L > 4.0) increases significantly after the occurrence of an earthquake swarm. A proposed alarm procedure, based on the identification of an increase in the seismic activity for at least two successive days, is applied to four seismically active zones in the region. The results indicate that there is a high probability (more than 40 per cent) of a successful earthquake prediction. Nevertheless, a great deal more data is required to support these observations before the suggested alarm procedure may be incorporated in an earthquake prediction scheme in Israel.