Identifying a sustainable operating window for seaweed aquaculture in the Global North: balancing expansion barriers and carrying capacity

Seaweed aquaculture is a growing blue sector that provides many benefits to society (e.g. biomass provision for food, feed and cosmetics) and the environment (e.g. eutrophication mitigation, carbon uptake and habitat provision). Successful and sustainable production expansion requires that these activities are operated within limits of acceptable change (LAC) i.e. align with ecological and social carrying capacity. Emerging from a three-round Delphi study, this work presents, from a Global North perspective, the most relevant 1) limiting variables from the socio-environmental spheres that influence the cultivation unit (inputs), such as high operating costs or underdeveloped markets or uncertain impacts from climate change, and 2) the negative impacts of aquaculture on environment and society (outputs), such as overhyped and unrealistic expectation for seaweed cultivation, conflicts with fisheries or pollution. Consolidated lists of these inputs and outputs are accompanied by specific thresholds beyond which unacceptable changes are likely to occur. These results are placed into a globally applicable holistic framework for a multidimensional assessment of seaweed aquaculture including barriers and carrying capacity, which has been outlined for the first time for seaweed cultivation. Our results emphasize the need to include socio-economic aspects into ecosystem approaches, like profitability or social license to operate – and the need for broad stakeholder participation. This study provides thus a directly useable lists of aspects to consider for cultivators and decision-makers. And as is as such a crucial contribution for the ongoing discourse on sustainable growth of this emerging blue sector.