Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)

Nick Marriner, David Kaniewski, Emmanuel Garnier, Majid Pourkerman, Matthieu Giaime, Matteo Vacchi, Christophe Morhange

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.

Original languageEnglish
Article number103933
JournalGlobal and Planetary Change
Volume217
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2022
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

  • Anthropocene
  • Climate change
  • Coasts
  • Natural hazards
  • Tropical cyclones

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Global and Planetary Change

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