Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)

Nick Marriner; David Kaniewski; Emmanuel Garnier; Majid Pourkerman; Matthieu Giaime; Matteo Vacchi; Christophe Morhange

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103933

Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)

Nick Marriner, David Kaniewski, Emmanuel Garnier, Majid Pourkerman, Matthieu Giaime, Matteo Vacchi, Christophe Morhange

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.

Original language	English
Article number	103933
Journal	Global and Planetary Change
Volume	217
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103933
State	Published - Oct 2022
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Financial support was provided by the CNRS International Research Network “RISCDIS” (Recovery trajectorIes of SoCieties to natural DISasters) and the MITI-CNRS “Evénements rares” project AQUASANMARCO. Emmanuel Garnier thanks (i) the Department of Geography and Churchill College at the University of Cambridge (UK) and (ii) the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) at the University of Kyoto (Japan) for financial and technical support.

Funding Information:
Financial support was provided by the CNRS International Research Network “RISCDIS” (Recovery trajectorIes of SoCieties to natural DISasters) and the MITI-CNRS “Evénements rares” project AQUASANMARCO. Emmanuel Garnier thanks (i) the Department of Geography and Churchill College at the University of Cambridge (UK) and (ii) the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) at the University of Kyoto (Japan) for financial and technical support.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Anthropocene
Climate change
Coasts
Natural hazards
Tropical cyclones

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Oceanography
Global and Planetary Change

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103933

Cite this

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title = "Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)",

abstract = "We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.",

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AU - Morhange, Christophe

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N2 - We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.

AB - We present a historical record of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs, 85 events) over the Mascarene Islands (southern Indian Ocean) since the 17th century to evaluate interannual-to-decadal-scale changes in past TC variability, from the cooler Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present warming world, and to contextualize present and future changes in risk estimates. For the Mascarene Islands, we observe a mean fourfold increase in regional landfalling TCs, beginning around 1940. Before this date, the historical TC data exhibit clear decadal cycles, which mirror solar radiative forcing. This historical record demonstrates how enhanced understanding of past variability can improve baseline risk estimates of TCs making landfall in the SW Indian Ocean basin.

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Has the Anthropocene affected the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones? Evidence from Mascarene Islands historical records (southwestern Indian Ocean)

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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