“Hamas is deterred” as wishful thinking: An analysis of how Israel empowered Hamas to attack Israel on October 7

The attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023, was a traumatic and strategic surprise for Israel. It was planned and executed by a known enemy that had been engaged in terror activity against Israel and had caught Israel unprepared. An analysis of the attack indicates that prior to October 7, the Israeli security and government’s assessment had been that ‘Hamas is deterred’–an assessment that was based on a wrong strategic conception. This assessment was a departure from reality, influenced by the ‘wishful thinking’ bias, and led to a dangerous sense of complacency among the senior political and military ranks.