Explaining the Rising Chinese Nationalist Revisionism: Implications for Regional Stability

How can we best explain the rising danger of violent conflicts in East Asia and particularly which are the most dangerous places where violence might erupt? The common explanation is that the rising power of China makes possible a more assertive-if not aggressive-Chinese behavior. Yet, this explanation is inadequate without considering the “state-to-nation balance” in the region, particularly national incongruences. Incongruences refer to the lack of compatibility between geographical borders and national identities in key places in East Asia, especially those places related to the external incongruences of China. Rising nationalism in China-combined with growing economic and military power-provides powerful incentives for a more aggressive Chinese behavior regarding these places of incongruence, most notably Taiwan and the South and East China Seas. These are the key places where large-scale violence might erupt, intentionally or inadvertently. While growing Chinese power provides the necessary conditions for rising Chinese revisionism, nationalism and national incongruences are the ones providing sufficient conditions. The chapter first explains the theory of conflicts based on the state-to-nation balance; then it applies the theory to the growing nationalist revisionism of rising China in East Asia; finally, it identifies the specific locales in East Asia where China conducts a revisionist policy explained by the external national incongruences of these places from a Chinese point of view. It concludes that high state capacity and external incongruence lead to balance of power dynamics in the region that lead to a cold war and may even escalate to armed conflict.