Elimination of inbreeding depression from a captive population of Speke's gazelle: Validity of the original statistical analysis and confirmation by permutation testing

The Speke's gazelle captive breeding program was designed in the early 1980s to simultaneously maintain the population's genetic diversity while reducing the severity of the inbreeding depression in a situation in which inbreeding could not be avoided. Statistical analyses of the resulting data using both regression techniques and nonparametric exact contingency tests revealed that the inbreeding depression was indeed reduced, and genetic surveys revealed that high levels of nuclear genetic diversity had indeed been maintained. Hence, the twin goals of the breeding program appeared to have been achieved. Recently, several papers have been published that question the validity of the original statistical analyses and resulting biological conclusions. Specifically, these papers raise three major issues: 1) that a small sample correction factor used in the regression analysis represents a statistical "flaw," 2) that new analyses of the data do not confirm the original conclusion of a significant reduction in the level of inbreeding depression, and 3) that the biological conclusions about the program are not justified. In this paper we show 1) that there is no "flaw" in the small sample correction, 2) that the recent permutational test given by Willis and Wiese seriously violates standard procedures and has no statistical validity, 3) that the regression procedures used by Ballou are inappropriate because the data seriously violate the underlying statistical assumptions and that the statistically valid components of Ballou's work strongly confirm the validity of the Speke's gazelle program, 4) that permutational tests done in accordance with standard statistical practice strongly confirm the results of the original analysis, and 5) that the original biological conclusions are fully justified by multiple types of statistical analyses. Zoo Biol 17:77-94, 1998.