Design for Reasoning with Uncertainty

The uncertainty involved in drawing conclusions based on a single sample is at the heart of informal statistical inferenceInformal Statistical Inference (ISI). Given only the sample evidenceEvidence, there is always uncertainty regarding the true state of the situation. An “Integrated Modelling Approach” (IMA) Modelingintegrated modeling approach (IMA)was developed and implemented to help students understand the relationship between sample and populationPopulationin an authentic context. This chapter focuses on the design of one activity in the IMA learning trajectory that aspires to assist students to reason with the uncertainty involved in drawing conclusions from a single sample to a population. It describes design principles and insights arising from the implementation of the activity with two students (age 12, grade 6). Implications for research and practice are also discussed.