Decisions with weather warnings when waiting is an option

Di Mu, Todd R. Kaplan, Rutger Dankers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


We use laboratory experiments to study decisions with a two-stage weather warning system that varies in the reliability of early warnings. The warning system is based on one used by the Met office since 2011: A risk matrix where the rows and columns represent probability levels and damage levels, respectively. Participants can choose between a safe but costly option and a risky but free option. They can make their decisions based on an unreliable early warning or wait for a more reliable warning, however, waiting makes the safe option more expensive. We find that increasing the reliability of the early warning generally leads participants to wait less and, surprisingly, the reliability of the early warning has a significant impact on the decision they make after waiting and receiving the more reliable warning.

Original languageEnglish
Article number104248
JournalInternational Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
StatePublished - 15 Feb 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Elsevier Ltd


  • Endogenous timing
  • Lab experiments
  • Uncertainty
  • Warning information

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Safety Research
  • Geology


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