Conflict-Related Breakdowns in Routine Medical Care - Longitudinal Outcomes for Civilians with Pre-Existing Cognitive Impairment

Individuals with dementia face increased vulnerability during crises like armed conflicts. However, little is known about how conflicts affect dementia care delivery and patients' health. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study using medical record data. The study included 23,733 adults aged≥65 years with a diagnosis of dementia and 249,749 matched adults without dementia. Data were collected at baseline (March-October 2023), and two follow-up timepoints (December 2023 and February 2024), bracketing an armed conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant groups that began on October 7, 2023. We compared changes over time in clinical characteristics, medication use, healthcare utilization, costs between groups. Dementia prevalence was stable, but psychotropic medication use declined more sharply in those with dementia. Rates of depression diagnoses fell, and obesity rose in both groups. Healthcare utilization decreased substantially post-conflict, with fewer outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and emergency visits. Cost divergence between groups also increased over time. Machine learning identified shifting clusters of service users from high to mainly low users’ post-conflict. The conflict severely disrupted routine dementia care and altered health behaviors. Flexible service delivery and access promotion strategies are needed to support vulnerable populations like people with dementia during crises.