Cascading disasters, information cascades and continuous time models of domino effects

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the dynamics through which cascading disasters evolve, spread and come to control in situations of uncertainty and vulnerability. The framework first establishes the idea that disasters are inherently a social phenomenon rooted in the social structure and reflects the processes of social change. The core of such social structures and processes is the mechanism of collective action. We then explain the ways in which formal mathematical models in general, and game theoretical models in particular, can help analyze the dynamics of collective action, detect the core parameters through which they evolve and, in particular, identify the interactions between these parameters. We show that these dynamics may have different forms of development, which are usually non-linear and cyclic. The framework also emphasizes the major role of information and social learning in these dynamics.