Can positive affect buffer PTSD? A comparison of dynamic networks during active conflict versus relative calm in war-exposed civilians

In conflict-affected regions, civilians are often exposed to traumatic events, leading to acute stress reactions and possibly posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). While negative emotions during and shortly after trauma are known predictors of PTSD, the role of positive affect as a potential protective factor remains underexplored. This study examines PTSD symptoms and positive affect in 65 participants during two distinct periods: acute conflict (2014 Israel-Gaza war) and 3.5 years later during relative calm. Using two-step multilevel longitudinal network analysis, we examined how temporal and contemporaneous relationships between PTSD symptom clusters and positive affect differ between periods. Results revealed significant predictive relationships during conflict that were absent at follow-up in the temporal networks. Notably, positive affect predicted reduced severity in negative cognitions and mood during conflict (partial r = -.24 contemporaneously; b = −.1 temporally), suggesting a possible protective role under acute stress. Arousal predicted other PTSD symptom clusters in the temporal network during conflict (b =.01 −.08). These findings highlight the importance of studying peritraumatic dynamics to better understand resilience and risk in trauma-exposed populations.