Balancing in stormy waters: The impact of naval regional power shifts on the evolution of maritime claims

Studies examining dyadic claims over maritime areas typically focus on the parties’ relative power dynamics and naval power. We argue that regional shifts in naval power also play a crucial role in the evolution of maritime disputes. The emergence of a regional power with enhanced naval capabilities and an assertive maritime strategy may deter foreign firms from investing in the development of maritime energy resources. In response, countries in the region may adopt balancing strategies and increase energy cooperation to mitigate the negative impacts on resource exploration and extraction. This need to safeguard energy initiatives incentivizes the resolution of unsettled maritime disputes. We examine the relationship between gas discoveries and unresolved maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean since the early 2000s to support our argument and show how Türkiye’s revisionist maritime strategy catalyzed regional energy cooperation, which impacted the evolution of maritime disputes among countries in the region.