Alleviating inflation of conditional predictions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Previous studies indicated that conditional predictions-the assessed probability that a certain outcome will occur given a certain condition-tend to be markedly inflated. Five experiments tested the effects of manipulations that were expected to alleviate this inflation by inducing participants to engage in analytic processing. Rewarding participants for accurate predictions proved ineffective. A training procedure in which participants assessed the likelihood of each of several outcomes before assessing the probability of a target outcome was partly effective in reducing overestimation. Most effective was the requirement to work in dyads and to come to an agreement about the assessed likelihood. Working in dyads helped alleviate prediction inflation even after participants made their individual predictions alone, and its debiasing effect also transferred to the estimates that were made individually on a new set of stimuli. The results were discussed in terms of the factors that make prediction inflation resistant to change.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)61-76
Number of pages16
JournalOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Issue number1
StatePublished - May 2008

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The research reported was conducted in the Institute of Information Processing and Decision Making, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel. We gratefully acknowledge support for this research by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of German-Israeli Project Cooperation (DIP). We thank Rinat Gil and Hila Urian for conducting the experiments and Limor Sheffer for her help in the analyses of the data.


  • Conditional predictions
  • Confirmation bias
  • Debiasing procedures
  • Judgment
  • Metacognition
  • Overprediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Applied Psychology
  • Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management


Dive into the research topics of 'Alleviating inflation of conditional predictions'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this