A probabilistic approach for evaluating earthquake risks, with application to the Afro-Eurasian junction

Earthquake risks may be quantified in terms of the annual probability of exceeding peak ground accelerations on the free surface. Accordingly, a direct method for estimating these probabilities is developed. The probabilistic approach is mainly based on seismographic data, and follows the assumption that the known seismicity of the region, during the last T years, would not dramatically change in the future T years. The method was applied to the region of the Afro-Eurasian Junction, for estimating the apparent annual probabilities of exceeding peak ground accelerations in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa. The reliability of the suggested approach is examined by means of comparison between the obtained results for Jerusalem and the seismic history of the city in the last 1000 years.