A probabilistic approach for evaluating earthquake risks, with application to the Afro-Eurasian junction

Avi Shapira

doi:10.1016/0040-1951(83)90048-3

A probabilistic approach for evaluating earthquake risks, with application to the Afro-Eurasian junction

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Abstract

Earthquake risks may be quantified in terms of the annual probability of exceeding peak ground accelerations on the free surface. Accordingly, a direct method for estimating these probabilities is developed. The probabilistic approach is mainly based on seismographic data, and follows the assumption that the known seismicity of the region, during the last T years, would not dramatically change in the future T years. The method was applied to the region of the Afro-Eurasian Junction, for estimating the apparent annual probabilities of exceeding peak ground accelerations in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa. The reliability of the suggested approach is examined by means of comparison between the obtained results for Jerusalem and the seismic history of the city in the last 1000 years.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	321-334
Number of pages	14
Journal	Tectonophysics
Volume	91
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(83)90048-3
State	Published - 20 Jan 1983
Externally published	Yes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
Earth-Surface Processes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/0040-1951(83)90048-3

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abstract = "Earthquake risks may be quantified in terms of the annual probability of exceeding peak ground accelerations on the free surface. Accordingly, a direct method for estimating these probabilities is developed. The probabilistic approach is mainly based on seismographic data, and follows the assumption that the known seismicity of the region, during the last T years, would not dramatically change in the future T years. The method was applied to the region of the Afro-Eurasian Junction, for estimating the apparent annual probabilities of exceeding peak ground accelerations in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa. The reliability of the suggested approach is examined by means of comparison between the obtained results for Jerusalem and the seismic history of the city in the last 1000 years.",

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AB - Earthquake risks may be quantified in terms of the annual probability of exceeding peak ground accelerations on the free surface. Accordingly, a direct method for estimating these probabilities is developed. The probabilistic approach is mainly based on seismographic data, and follows the assumption that the known seismicity of the region, during the last T years, would not dramatically change in the future T years. The method was applied to the region of the Afro-Eurasian Junction, for estimating the apparent annual probabilities of exceeding peak ground accelerations in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Haifa. The reliability of the suggested approach is examined by means of comparison between the obtained results for Jerusalem and the seismic history of the city in the last 1000 years.

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A probabilistic approach for evaluating earthquake risks, with application to the Afro-Eurasian junction

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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