שיקולים נורמטיביים שעל המשפט לנקוט באשר לאפשרות שתלונות על עבירות מין הן תלונות שווא: ניתוח מתמטי, ניתוח של שכל ישר והשפעתו של כשל שיעור הבסיס

Translated title of the contribution: NORMATIVE CONSIDERATIONS THAT THE COURT MUST ACCOUNT FOR CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY THAT A LEGATIONS OF SEXUAL OFFENSES MAY BE FALSE COMPLAINTS :MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS , COMMON SENSE , AND THE EFFECT OF THE BASE RATE FALLACY

דורון מנשה, איל גרונר

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We wish to examine the proper stand to follow when complainants falsely accuse others of committing sexual offenses. The probability that a single complainant files a false complaint is low based on common sense considerations. This assumption does not contradict the fact that the macro-picture considerations of numerous complaints might produce some false allegations that is neither low nor negligible, and under certain conditions exceeds the rate of true allegations. This is a statistical phenomenon called "base rate failure". It is possible that a high number of potential complainants might increase the number of false allegations from the collective.Insofar as it is a series of complaints of different allegations against one defendant,in the absence of individual evidence of similar facts and improper conduct, the claim that the defendants committed at least one sexual offense is strong, but cannot establish a conviction based on any individual allegation as a statistical claim of non-specific offense. On the other hand, when it comes to filing an indictment based on a series of complainants, one must not assume that a defendant who had committed a series of sexual offenses, necessarily committed a sexual offense against a specific complainant.When it comes to individual evidence of improper conduct and similar facts, a conviction may be based on an individual allegation.
Translated title of the contributionNORMATIVE CONSIDERATIONS THAT THE COURT MUST ACCOUNT FOR CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY THAT A LEGATIONS OF SEXUAL OFFENSES MAY BE FALSE COMPLAINTS :MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS , COMMON SENSE , AND THE EFFECT OF THE BASE RATE FALLACY
Original languageHebrew
Pages (from-to)317-383
Number of pages67
Journalדין ודברים: כתב-עת משפטי בין-תחומי
Volumeי"ז
StatePublished - 2023

IHP Publications

  • ihp
  • Autonomy (Psychology)
  • Common sense
  • Complaints (Administrative procedure)
  • Crime
  • Criminal law
  • Dignity
  • Evidence (Law)
  • Judgments, Criminal
  • Judicial error
  • Law enforcement
  • Perjury
  • Prisoners -- Civil rights
  • Probabilities
  • Punishment
  • Respect for persons
  • Sex crimes
  • Sexual abuse victims
  • Victims of crimes
  • Witnesses

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